So far this year the equity markets have been good with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) up 12% and NASDAQ 100 (NDX) up 16%. Regarding the S&P, the short-term bottom is behind us, and the trend is starting to turn up.
We like Japan, biotech, and consumer sector plays at this time. We have new buy signals for the SPX and NDX. We are still out of gold (in money market). We have a new bond signal to be out (in money market).
If Congress does not reach a tax and spending agreement and the US goes over the “fiscal cliff” on 1-1-13, the markets could drop suddenly in late December. And the rating agencies are threatening to lower the U.S. credit rating like they did last year. Thus, the last few weeks in December will be watched carefully.
Our analysis indicates that all style-box indexes have slightly negative momentum. All Sectors, except utilities, have slightly negative momentum. Emerging Markets and Germany have slightly positive momentum. The U.S. dollar has zero momentum.
With most of the style-box indexes, sector indexes, and world indexes momentum is getting more positive and we expect the increase in prices to continue.
Because the markets can turn quickly, be ready. May the market be with you (November 23, 2012)!
Certain information contained in this presentation is based upon forward-looking statements, information and opinions, including descriptions of anticipated market changes and expectations of future activity. The manager believes that such statements, information and opinions are based upon reasonable estimates and assumptions. However, forward-looking statements, information and opinions are inherently uncertain and actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements. Therefore, undue reliance should not be placed on such forward-looking statements, information and opinions.