Still, he laid out a case for why stocks are still offering a better value than bonds for long-term investors.
As part of a multi-page slideshow obtained by Business Insider, he wrote, “I am cautiously optimistic that a tepid economic recovery will continue in the U.S., but with the S&P 500 up more than 16% year-to-date, the markets have already had a good year. So I don't see much upside
unless the economy really takes off, which I think is unlikely.”
Tilson also named four factors that could derail the U.S. economy:
1) A turn for the worse in Europe
2) A downturn for the U.S. housing market
3) The economic slowdown in China becomes a hard landing
4) A sovereign debt crisis in Japan
Yet long-term investors with a 10-year horizon are still better off buying dividend paying blue-chip stocks at reasonable multiples, rather than low-yielding U.S. Treasuries -- especially given the high level of U.S. sovereign debt, according to his presentation.