Expect a big stock rally and bonds to fall throughout 2012

We recently had a chance to ask Covestor manager Bob Gay, head of Global Equity Analytics and Research Services LLC (GEARS), how he sees the rest of 2012 playing out for markets:

Bob's three Covestor models are Earnings Surprise, Luxury Liner and Speedboat.

A transcript of Bob's remarks:

We're looking now at the prospect of a major acceleration in the performance of the stock market through the year 2012 and it's probably one of the most important opportunities for investors to buy stocks that we've seen over our investing lifetimes.

Bond yields are now unusually low - in fact, long treasury bonds are at  unprecedented lows - so the likelihood of bond yields declining from here is slim and in fact given a very broad acceleration in corporate profitability that's now underway, it's much more likely that bond yields will rise.

Generally speaking rising bond yields is an impairment of equity performance but with corporation profitability rising as quickly as it is, it's much more likely that stocks will outperform bonds.

In fact it's my proposition that by the end of 2012, stocks will be twenty percent higher - which will be a great year - but more importantly that bonds will be twenty percent lower, which will make the year 2012 one of the most dramatic outperformance periods of equities relative to bonds that we've seen in our investing experience.

  • Jbpa503

    This is no revelation. Everyone I know is HEAVILY in the stock market this election year. It is a lock to gain at least 20%, and thats on the low end. After the election get out for a while, but for now take the easy money.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/VD3YBOOMHKAJT227HP3K5ZUGY4 Brendan

    Bonds go down 20%?  Doubt that very much, perhaps treasuries could because they are so overbought.  But the Barclay's bond index has never lost more than 4.5% in a year.  Unless we get 70's style inflation there's just no way.