There has been a lot of talk recently about a possible double-dip recession. I think many investors are overreacting, not because I think another recession is unlikely, but because most people don't really know much about the economy and how economies work in general (myself included). The economy is too large and complicated for anyone to fully comprehend. It's a worldwide complex adaptive system with billions of moving parts. Trying to predict the economy is like trying to predict the stock market.

is is my August investment letter regarding my dividend value model (J:HDGB). As you know the models goal is to seek and attain above average dividend yield with some capital appreciation while minimizing market risk. I must admit that beating the index was not the intended goal of this model. However I am proud to point out that the model is still beating the S&P 500 as of September 3, 2010, which remains remarkably encouraging.

August 30, 2010: The S&P 500 index is down 4.94% for the month of August through August 26, 2010. I see a lot of good values among the top ten stocks in the S&P 500 by market cap. Exxon Mobil (XOM), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Proctor & Gamble (PG) are the top four and trade at comparatively low forward earnings estimates. Apple is the only one on the list with significant growth prospects over the next ten years or so and it trades less than twenty times trailing earnings as of August 30, 2010.